Multi-COE COVID-19 Wargaming Effort

The ALERT COE in collaboration with the ADAC and CREATE COEs will be working together to create an adaptive wargaming/situational awareness/decision support tool for pandemic related optimal resource allocation of public health interventions, isolation strategies, medical equipment and medicine distribution, medical service personnel and other responders. The effort will take place in multiple phases. The first one-year phase will focus on the initial development of the tool. Future phases of the work will involve other interested COEs and will refine the tool and extend its impact to deal with other relevant natural and manmade disasters such as hurricanes and massive cyber-attacks.

The Tool– CAP (Combat Against Pandemics) This tool will allow decision makers at multiple levels to quickly explore multiple what-if scenarios to determine the most efficient strategies for mitigating the effects of a pandemic disaster and bring it under control. A pandemic can come in a single wave or several waves separated by several months or years, and future waves may be more severe than the initial one. This tool can flatten them all. The impact of CAP will be:

  • Mitigating the spread of a pandemic will require understanding of the physical situation combined with the impacts of the humans in the loop.
  • The tool will combine control theory, psychology, network science, statistical learning, game theory, and data-driven approaches into a system framework that can be used for what-if tradeoffs and decision making.
  • Development of CAP will be an extension of work that the team has previously done in the area of natural disaster mitigation in cyber-social-physical dynamic systems such as the Northeast corridor.

What is the Phase 1 Deliverable? The long-term goal of this effort is to develop a comprehensive framework in which to think about strategic interactions for defending against dynamic, persistent, multi-year, multi-pronged pandemic and other related disasters.  In this first year (Phase 1) the ALERT, ADAC and CREATE COEs will deliver an initial demonstration of the CAP tool. Future phases will enhance the capabilities of CAP by incorporating collaboration with other DHS COEs.

Point of Contact: Michael Silevitch, Director, ALERT COE:

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